Causal Policy Models
This research focuses on optimising causal interventions, considering both their efficacy and resilience to strategic contestation. It integrates causal modelling, optimisation techniques and game theory to support decision-making in complex social systems, particularly in the context of violent political conflict. It aims to identify causal pathways to violent conflict, optimise interventions into these pathways and ensure these interventions remain effective under strategic challenges.
Two case studies are considered. First, causal discovery techniques are used to identify and model causal pathways linking environmental factors to violent conflict in Iraq. The optimal interventions to reduce conflict are then computed using the proposed methods. Second, game-theoretical approaches are applied to hybrid threats, modelling interactions between a state and its adversary. Optimal countermeasures are computed using influence diagrams and extended to multi-agent settings to account for strategic contestation.
People involved:
Maarten Vonk
Prof. Thomas Bäck
